The state pension triple lock is being drawn into the debate over how the Government could fund a national care service, with Prime Minister Andy Burnham putting care as a key priority.
The triple lock ensures the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest out of inflation, average wage growth or 2.5 per cent.
But changing the policy after the next general election could free up money for other Government priorities at a time when ministers are considering how to tackle the long-running pressures facing social care.
Burnham is calling for an “honest conversation” about some of the difficult choices facing the country.
In his first conference speech as Prime Minister, he said that the triple lock will be honoured for the rest of this term, but added: "From there, in April 2030, we will adjust it. The state pension will continue to rise every year, at least by prices, or 2.5 per cent, and it will hold its value relative to earnings over time, so that pensioners will always share in the rising prosperity of the nation."
Today's Poll: Would you support scrapping State Pension triple lock (amount its guaranteed to rise by) to pay for universal social care?
NB. This is a vibe question. There are many other routes, options & things money could go to. Yet given a straight choice what's your view?— Martin Lewis (@MartinSLewis) September 28, 2026
How could the triple lock help pay for social care?
The link between pensions and social care is emerging as ministers consider how a national care service could be funded.
The Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) estimates that the triple lock currently adds around £16 billion a year to state pension spending compared with uprating pensions in line with average earnings.
That does not mean £16 billion could simply be transferred to social care if the triple lock were changed.
The eventual saving would depend on what replaced the existing system, how pension increases were calculated and the wider impact on Government finances.
But the size of the figure illustrates why the triple lock is being discussed as ministers look at competing demands on public spending.
What has the triple lock done for pensioners?
The debate comes against a backdrop of substantial increases in state pension payments since the guarantee was introduced.
Press Association analysis of DWP data found that the average annual state pension increase between 2012/13 and 2026/27 was 4.1 per cent.
That compares with an average of 3.5 per cent during the previous 15 years, from 1997/98 to 2011/12.
The IFS estimates that if flat-rate state pensions had risen in line with average earnings since 2010 rather than under the triple lock, they would now be around 12 per cent lower - equivalent to approximately £1,500 a year less.
The think tank says the triple lock has therefore played an important role in increasing pensioner incomes, although it is not the only factor.
Why does the triple lock cost so much?
State pension spending is now around £154 billion a year, according to the IFS.
That is equivalent to around 4.9 per cent of national income, compared with 4.3 per cent in 2010 and 3.6 per cent in 2006/07.
The IFS estimates the triple lock itself accounts for around £16 billion of additional annual spending compared with an earnings-linked alternative.
Recommended reading:
- What is the triple lock? The DWP state pension rule facing Budget pressure
- The DWP State Pension age change being proposed to help young adults get jobs
- Pensioners hoping for £14,500 State Pension get major DWP response
What happens next?
The triple lock will remain until 2030.
The Budget on 28 October will provide a key opportunity for the Government to set out more of its spending plans.
For pensioners, the crucial question will be whether they are better off with the triple lock, or with a fully funded social care service.
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